Mathematical Physics and Predictability of Complex Coevolutionary Systems

This page summarises, in plain language, the outline of the report giving rise to the Flagship on Mathematical Physics and Predictability of Complex Coevolutionary Systems, and is its DOI landing page. The corresponding bibliographic citation is:

Perdigão, R.A.P. (2014): Mathematical Physics and Predictability of Complex Coevolutionary Systems.

We have launched an international program on the Mathematical Physics and Predictability of Complex Coevolutionary Systems, with Flagship reference MR-220617. Among other initiatives ranging from theoretical research and development to knowledge transfer and service, it funds our Doctoral School on Complexity.

Fundamentally, the program entails the theoretical establishment of novel fundamental principles and general governing laws for complex systems, including the far from equilibrium coevolutionary dynamics where the ergodic assumptions of classical dynamical system theories do not work.

The theory provides fundamental physical understanding and dynamic predictability in non-standard systems where there are no established invariants of motion, no attractors, no definite phase space, and no scale separability (i.e. where the classical scale interaction paradigms are not possible, and the predictability of both deterministic and stochastic formulations collapse).

A series of projects are set within this program, from fundamental mathematical physics to applications including complex system modelling, big data analytics, robust assessment of environmental conditions in fast-changing theatres of operation, dynamic risk assessment and decision support under trans-critical climate change.

  • Non-Ergodic Information Physics and Coevolutionary Complexity;
  • Nonlinear Information Physics: Theoretical Advances and Geophysical Applications; • Predictability Beyond Memory Loss: Information Physics of ”Black Swans”;
  • NBN-MESD: Nonlinear Bayesian Networks in Multiscale Earth System Dynamics;
  • M-DSC Doctoral Program on Complex System Dynamics.

Update in 2019: The program first ran for a first round of five years beginning in 2014, and was later awarded a renewal in 2019 for another round of five years.

Key international publications:

Since 2019, this program also coevolves with the following initiative: